Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2026 and policy suggestions

Authors

Xikang CHEN, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Cuihong YANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Kunfu ZHU, School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Huijuan WANG, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
Xinru LI, School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Yu ZHAO, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; State Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Keywords

economic growth rate forecast, economic situation, gross domestic product (GDP), policy suggestions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

In 2025, China’s economy has shown a steady progress while maintaining stability. The industrial structure continues to be optimized, the new-quality productive forces enjoyed thriving development, people’s wellbeing was effectively ensured. China’s GDP growth rate ranks among the first tier of the world’s major economies. This study reviews the economic performance of China in 2025 and analyzes the domestic and international conditions for the next period. Using a system-based comprehensive factor prediction method, the study forecasts the economic growth rate for 2026, indicating that China’s economy is expected to maintain stable operation, with a growth rate of around 5.0%. This study provides specific policy suggestions based on the current economic situation.

First page

152

Last Page

161

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1. 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2025年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议. 中国科学院院刊. 2025, 40(1): 140-148. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. Forecast of China’s economic growth rate for 2024 and policy suggestions. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences. 2025, 40(1): 140-148. (in Chinese)

2. Chen X K, Guo, J E, Yang C H. Yearly grain output predictions in China 1980-2004. Economic Systems Research, 2008, 20(2): 139-150.

3. 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2026年中国GDP增长速度分析与预测// 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院预测科学研究中心. 2026年中国经济预测与展望. 北京: 科学出版社, 2026. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. China GDP growth rate forecast for 2026// Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. China Economic Forecast for 2026. Beijing: Science Press, 2026. (in Chinese)

Recommended Citation

CHEN, Xikang; YANG, Cuihong; ZHU, Kunfu; WANG, Huijuan; LI, Xinru; and ZHAO, Yu (2026) "Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2026 and policy suggestions," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 41 : Iss. 1 , Article 14.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3724/j.issn.1000-3045.20251225007
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol41/iss1/14