Analysis of international carbon budget management systems and their applicability to China

Authors

Wenjun WANG, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, ChinaFollow
Huiquan HUANG, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China
Xujie ZHAO, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China
Pengcheng XIE, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; School of Energy Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, ChinaFollow
Chonghui FU, Shenzhen Yuntian Research Center of Sustainable Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Qiaqia ZHANG, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China

Keywords

carbon budget；dual control transition；localization research；UK；German；economic impact；pre-assessment；carbon market

Document Type

Policy & Management Research

Abstract

China is establishing a carbon budget management system at both provincial and municipal levels. The carbon budget system, as a policy tool for integrating total carbon emission management and economic planning, has already been effective in developed countries. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the concept, core elements, and practical experiences of the carbon budget system, and compares international practices with China’s low-carbon management system in the context of national circumstances. It extracts elements from international experiences that provide empirical insights, exhibit reference value, and require localization and innovation. Based on the analysis, this study proposes the following policy implications. (1) Positioning the carbon budget system as a connector within China’s dual carbon 1+N system, linking the 1 and N components. (2) The carbon budget space and industrial planning should be deeply coupled to drive the rise of low-carbon and high value-added industries. (3) Defining the focus of the carbon budget system during both the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality stages of China’s carbon goals. (4) Playing its synergistic function in the carbon budget allocation system. (5) Developing a localized toolkit for carbon budget policies and carrying out pre-assessment of the impact of the carbon budget on the economy and society. (6) Initiating pilot projects in provinces with regional carbon markets to explore the integration of carbon budgets with carbon trading mechanisms.

First page

1408

Last Page

1420

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1. 陈晓婷, 陈迎. 从科学和政策视角看碳预算对全球气候治理的作用. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 632-639. Chen X T, Chen Y. The scientific and political views of carbon budget for global climate governance. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 632-639. (in Chinese)

2. Leach N J, Jenkins S, Nicholls Z, et al. FaIRv2.0.0: A generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geoscientific Model Development, 2021, 14(5): 3007-3036.

3. Lamboll R D, Nicholls Z R J, Smith C J, et al. Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets. Nature Climate Change, 2023, 13(12): 1360-1367.

4. Rogelj J, Forster P M, Kriegler E, et al. Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets. Nature, 2019, 571: 335-342.

5. Thompson R L, Patra P K, Chevallier F, et al. Top-down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s. Nature Communications, 2016, 7: 10724.

6. La Rovere E L. Climate Change and Sustainable Development Strategies: A Brazilian Perspective. Paris: OCED, 2002.

7. Rosa L P, Ribeiro S K. The present, past, and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions from fuels. Climatic Change, 2001, 48(2): 289-307.

8. Gupta S, Bhandari P M. An effective allocation criterion for CO2 emissions. Energy Policy, 1999, 27(12): 727-736.

9. Rose A, Stevens B, Edmonds J, et al. International equity and differentiation in global warming policy. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1998, 12: 25-51.

10. Fisher B S, Nakicenovic N, Alfsen K, et al. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context// Metz B, Davidson O R, Bosch P R, et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

11. McMullin B, Price P, Jones M B, et al. Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2020, 25: 579-602.

12. Jabbari M, Shafiepour Motlagh M, Ashrafi K, et al. Global carbon budget allocation based on Rawlsian Justice by means of the Sustainable Development Goals Index. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020, 22: 5465-5481.

13. Riahi K, Van Vuuren D P, Kriegler E, et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 2017, 42: 153-168.

14. Zhou J F, Wu D, Chen W. Cap and trade versus carbon tax: An analysis based on a CGE model. Computational Economics, 2022, 59(2): 853-885.

15. Li H, Zhao Y H, Wang S, et al. Scenario analysis of ETS revenue allocation mechanism of China: Based on a dynamic CGE model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2019, 26: 27971-27986.

16. Li T, Li J, Zhou Z X, et al. Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2017, 24: 10466-10480.

17. Nieto J, Pollitt H, Brockway P E, et al. Socio-macroeconomic impacts of implementing different post-Brexit UK energy reduction targets to 2030. Energy Policy, 2021, 158: 112556.

18. Mercure J F, Pollitt H, Edwards N R, et al. Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2018, 20: 195-208.

19. 潘家华. 碳预算——公平、可持续的国际气候制度构架. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2011. Pan J H. Budgeting Carbon for Equity and Sustainability. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2011. (in Chinese)

20. 惠婧璇. 欧盟等经济体碳排放管控主要做法、存在问题及对我国启示. 中国经贸导刊, 2023, 1045(7): 26-29. Hui J X. Main practices, problems, and implications for China in the EU and other economies’ carbon emission control policies. China Economic & Trade Herald, 2023, 1045(7): 26-29. (in Chinese)

21. 徐金金, 沈熳纯. 英国气候政策新进展及其前景. 华北电力大学学报（社会科学版）, 2023, (6): 43-53. Xu J J, Shen M C. The UK climate policy: New progress and prospects. Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences), 2023, (6): 43-53. (in Chinese)

22. 李伟, 李航星. 英国碳预算：目标、模式及其影响. 现代国际关系, 2009, (8): 18-23. Li W, Li H X. UK Carbon Budgets: Targets, models, and impacts. Contemporary International Relations, 2009, (8): 18-23. (in Chinese)

23. 潘晓滨. 碳中和背景下国家碳预算的理论同构与立法路径. 湖南大学学报（社会科学版）, 2024, 38(1): 112-118. Pan X B. Theoretical isomorphism and legislative path of national carbon budget under carbon neutralization. Journal of Hunan University (Social Sciences), 2024, 38(1): 112-118. (in Chinese)

24. 邬炜, 赵腾, 李隽, 等. 考虑碳预算与碳循环的能源规划方法及建议. 电力建设, 2021, 42(10): 1-8. Wu W, Zhao T, Li J, et al. Energy planning methods and proposals considering carbon budget and carbon cycle. Electric Power Construction, 2021, 42(10): 1-8. (in Chinese)

25. 杜栋. “碳预算”的关键是做好碳排放统计核算工作. 环境与生活, 2023, (5): 26-27. Du D. The key to “carbon budgeting” lies in improving carbon emission statistical accounting. Green Living, 2023, (5): 26-27. (in Chinese)

26. 涂建明, 邓玲, 沈永平. 企业碳预算的管理设计与制度安排——以发电企业为例. 会计研究, 2016, (3): 64-71+96. Tu J M, Deng L, Shen Y P. Management design and institution arrangement of enterprise carbon budget—a case of power generation enterprise, Accounting Research, 2016, (3): 64-71. (in Chinese)

27. 杨儒浦, 李丽平. 实施碳预算的国际经验借鉴. 中国能源, 2023, 45(11): 73-81. Yang R P, Li L P. International experience and reference in implementing carbon budgets. Energy of China, 2023, 45(11): 73-81. (in Chinese)

28. 杨儒浦, 冯相昭. 英国碳预算对我国实施碳排放总量控制制度的启示. 可持续发展经济导刊, 2023, (Z1): 36-41. Yang R F, Feng X Z. The enlightenment of the British carbon budget on the policy development of capping carbon emission in China. China Sustainability Tribune, 2023, (Z1): 36-41. (in Chinese)

29. 王社坤. 英国《气候变化法》及其启示// 于文轩. 环境资源与能源法评论（第2辑）: 应对气候变化与能源转型的法制保障. 北京: 中国政法大学出版社, 2017: 70-97. Wang S K. The UK Climate Change Act and its implications//Yu W X. Environmental Resources and Energy Law Review (Volume 2): Legal Safeguards for Climate Change Response and Energy Transition. Beijing: China University of Political Science and Law Press, 2017: 70-97. （in Chinese）

30. 田丹宇, 徐华清. 德国气候保护法立法动因、特征及对我国立法的启示. 环境资源法论丛, 2020, 12(0): 141-153. Tian D Y, Xu H Q. Motivations, features, and legislative implications of Germany’s climate protection law for China. Environmental and Resources Law Review, 2020, 12(0): 141-153. (in Chinese)

31. 王文军, 潘家华. 国际气候方案的福利经济学分析——以“碳预算”方案为例. 北京: 中国社会科学院研究生院， 2010. Wang W J, Pan J H. Welfare Economics Analysis of International Climate Programmes—The Example of “Carbon Budget” Programmes. Beijing: Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2010. (in Chinese)

32. 王文军. 德国WBGU碳预算方案解析与中国社会科学院方案比较. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(2): 147-151. Wang W J. Comparison and analysis on both carbon budget proposals from WBGU and CASS. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2010, 6(2): 147-151. (in Chinese)

33. 杨艳, 谷树忠, 李维明, 等. 从战略到行动：德国经济绿色低碳转型历程及启示. 发展研究, 2021, 38(4): 58-63.Yang Y, Gu S Z, Li W M, et al. From strategy to action: The German economy’s green and low carbon transition and implications. Development Research, 2021, 38(4): 58-63. (in Chinese)

Recommended Citation

WANG, Wenjun; HUANG, Huiquan; ZHAO, Xujie; XIE, Pengcheng; FU, Chonghui; and ZHANG, Qiaqia (2024) "Analysis of international carbon budget management systems and their applicability to China," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 40 : Iss. 8 , Article 8.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3724/j.issn.1000-3045.20240712003
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol40/iss8/8