•  
  •  
 

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

governance informatization; technology foresight; scenario needs; digital transformation; governance modernization

Document Type

Scenario-oriented Technology Foresight on Information Technology for Public Governance

Abstract

To effectively adapt to the reshaping of public governance concepts, models, and tools driven by the new generation of information technologies represented by artificial intelligence, it is essential to take practical application scenarios as the entry point. Implementing periodic technology foresight on public governance information technologies can promote the integrated development of governance and digital technologies. This is an urgent task for both the public governance and information technology domains. Foresight for information technologies supporting public governance must be oriented toward the demands of complex data-driven and intelligent governance scenarios. It should focus on guiding technological directions with social value, leveraging collaborative innovation to adapt to rapid IT transformations, and strengthening scenario-driven approaches to enhance the alignment between technology and governance needs. This study proposes a scenario-driven foresight framework for governance-related information technologies, drawing on the trend of deep integration and mutual empowerment between public governance and information technology. It further introduces a five-step approach: “vision-driven, scenario anchoring, multi-dimensional assessment, technological deconstruction, and global benchmarking” guiding systematic foresight practices. This study not only expands the application boundaries of technology foresight in public governance but also provides theoretical support for building a systematic, forward-looking, and operational technology foresight framework. Finally, this study puts forward policy recommendations to strengthen scenario-driven foresight for public governance information technologies, focusing on fostering cross-sectoral collaboration mechanisms, improving multi-stakeholder participation ecosystems, and enhancing data and intelligence capabilities as key enablers.

First page

1653

Last Page

1662

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1. 陈凯华, 张超. 加快推进数字技术赋能国家治理现代化建设. 智慧中国, 2023, (5): 32-34. Chen K H, Zhang C. Accelerating the empowerment of national governance modernization with digital technology. Wisdom China, 2023, (5): 32-34. (in Chinese)

2. 郝跃, 陈凯华, 康瑾, 等. 数字技术赋能国家治理现代化建设. 中国科学院院刊, 2022, 37(12): 1675-1685. Hao Y, Chen K H, Kang J, et al. Digital technology enables construction of national governance modernization. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2022, 37(12): 1675-1685. (in Chinese)

3. 尹西明. 应用场景何以驱动创新. 经济日报, 2025-02-25(10). Yin X M, How application scenarios drive innovation. Economic Daily, 2025-02-25(10).

4. Miles I, Saritas O, Sokolov A. Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Berlin: Springer, 2016.

5. OECD. Framework for Anticipatory Governance of Emerging Technologies. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2024.

6. European Commission. Destination Earth Use Cases Analysis. Brussels: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020.

7. UNESCO. Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century. Paris: UNESCO, 2018.

8. Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. The Sixth Science, Technology and Innovation Basic Plan. Tokyo: Government of Japan, 2021.

9. National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. Washington DC: National Intelligence Council, 2021.

10. European Commission. Shaping Europe’s digital future. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020.

11. 杨晓光, 陈凯华, 郑晓龙, 等. 数字技术赋能国家治理现代化建设：挑战及应对. 国家治理, 2023, (5): 52-55. Yang X G, Chen K H, Zheng X G, et al. Digital technology enables the modernization of national governance: Challenges and responses. Governance, 2023, (5): 52-55. (in Chinese)

12. Nelson R R, Sampat B N. Making sense of institutions as a factor shaping economic performance. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2001, 44(1): 31-54.

13. Roehl U B U, Hansen M B. Automated, administrative decision-making and good governance: Synergies, trade-offs, and limits. Public Administration Review, 2024, 84(6): 1184-1199.

14. 王芳, 郭雷. 数字化社会的系统复杂性研究. 管理世界, 2022, 38(9): 208-221. Wang F, Guo L. Research on the systemic complexity of digital society. Management World, 2022, (9): 208-221. (in Chinese)

15. NISTEP. The 11th Science and Technology Foresight Survey Report. Tokyo: National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, MEXT, 2020.

16. European Commission. Horizon Europe Strategic Plan 2021-2024: Research and Innovation. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021.

17. 朱婷婷, 贠杰. 从浅层结合走向深度融合：数字政府场景化应用的优化路径. 电子政务, 2025, (2): 2-16. Zhu T T. From superficial integration to deep integration: optimizing the scenario-based application of digital government. E-Government, 2023, (6): 38-40. (in Chinese)

18. Sánchez-Torres J M, Miles I. The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: A systematic review. European Journal of Futures Research, 2017, 5(1): 15.

19. Martin B R. Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 1995, 7(2): 139-168.

20. 中国科学院信息技术学部项目组. 信息技术支撑国家治理现代化的战略研究. 北京：科学出版社, 2025. Project Team of the Information Technology Division, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Strategic research on information technology supporting the modernization of national governance. Beijing: Science Press, 2025. (in Chinese)

Download
Request a Copy

Share

COinS