Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2025 and policy suggestions

Authors

Xikang CHEN, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Cuihong YANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Kunfu ZHU, School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Huijuan WANG, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
Xinru LI, School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Yu ZHAO, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Keywords

economic forecast; economic situation analysis; gross domestic product (GDP); policy suggestions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

In 2024, China’s economy has shown steady progress, maintaining a relatively high growth rate. This study reviews the economic performance of China in 2024 and analyzes the domestic and international conditions for the next period. Using a system-based comprehensive factor prediction method, the study forecasts the economic growth rate for 2025, which indicates that China’s economy is expected to maintain stable operation, with a growth rate of around 4.8%, and is expected to reach around 5% if the package of incremental policies will be effectively implemented and boost the market. Based on the current economic situation, this study provides specific policy suggestions regarding strengthening the domestic economic cycle, enhancing the production efficiency, promoting the potential of domestic demand, and promoting development in key areas such as the capital market, science and technology, medical care, education, and youth employment.

First page

140

Last Page

148

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2024年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议. 中国科学院院刊, 2024, 39(1): 95-104. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. Forecast of China’s economic growth rate for 2024 and policy suggestions. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2024, 39(1): 95-104. (in Chinese)

2 Chen X K, Guo J E, Yang C H. Yearly grain output predictions in China 1980-2004. Economic Systems Research, 2008, 20(2): 139-150.

3 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2025年中国GDP增长速度分析与预测// 2025年中国经济预测与展望. 北京: 科学出版社, 2025. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. China GDP growth rate forecast for 2025// China Economic Forecast for 2025. Beijing: Science Press, 2025. (in Chinese)

Recommended Citation

CHEN, Xikang; YANG, Cuihong; ZHU, Kunfu; WANG, Huijuan; LI, Xinru; and ZHAO, Yu (2024) "Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2025 and policy suggestions," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 40 : Iss. 1 , Article 13.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20241225002
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol40/iss1/13