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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

economic forecast, economic situation analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), policy suggestions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

In 2023, China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic. However, the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024. This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth, integrating input-output models, econometric models, prosperity analysis, expert insights, and scenario analysis. Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions, it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3% in 2024. Based on this analysis, several policy recommendations are suggested, namely, intensifying macro-control policies for both cyclical and counter-cyclical phases; elevating the industrial chain’s modernization to enhance its resilience and competitiveness; and providing steady support to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.

First page

95

Last Page

104

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(1): 81-90. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. Forecast of China’s economic growth rate for 2022 and policy suggestions. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(1): 81-90. (in Chinese)

2 Chen X K, Guo J E, Yang C H. Yearly grain output predictions in China 1980-2004. Economic Systems Research, 2008, 20(2): 139-150.

3 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2024年中国GDP增长速度分析与预测// 中国科学院预测科学研究中心. 2024年中国经济预测与展望. 北京: 科学出版社, 2024.

Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. China GDP growth rate forecast for 2024// Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. China Economic Forecast for 2024. Beijing: Science Press, 2024. (in Chinese)

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