Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), low-carbon transition pathways, climate change, climate cooperation

Document Type

Research on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation of Major Countries along the Belt and Road


Climate cooperation among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries holds significant practical importance for achieving low-carbon transition and sustainable development within the BRI framework. To analyze the pathway towards low-carbon transition under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and emission quota allocation methods, the CGEM-BRI model was developed. The study also examined the potential requirements for climate finance, capacity building, and management system. Based on these findings, recommendations for climate cooperation between China and BRI countries were formulated. The study revealed that in order to limit global temperature rise for 1.5℃ in 2100, renewable energy sources should account for a minimum 65% of total primary energy consumption across all BRI countries by 2050. Achieving the low-carbon development goals outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of major BRI countries is estimated to require at least $19.2 trillion, with varying funding needs across different countries. To facilitate this transition, China must expedite the integration of its climate cooperation strategy with its economic transition and internationalization strategy, thereby assisting BRI countries in their own transitions. China also need to utilize China' s comparative advantages in the field of new energy to accelerate the process of low-carbon energy transition in BRI countries. Furthermore, it is crucial to accelerate the implementation of the China Climate Change South-South Cooperation Fund and promote green investment and financing cooperation among BRI countries. Lastly, it is needed to strengthen capacity building initiatives for climate cooperation and foster the establishment of a global climate governance system that encourages broad participation.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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