Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


the Beautiful China Initiative, "35 goals", "50 vision", scenario simulation

Document Type

Scenario Simulation and Intelligent Management and Regulation on Building of a Beautiful China


Realizing the Beautiful China Initiative is the general goal of China’s ecological civilization construction in the next 30 years. The overall goal includes two phased goals: “35 goals” and “50 vision”. This study first expounds the understanding of the goal from the aspects of ecosystem elements, structure, process, and function, and then constructs an index system to describe the goal and simulates the “35 goals” and “50 vision” under the trend of climate change, population decline and economic growth. The results show that, by 2035, China will have a population of 1.44 billion (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and a GDP of 200 trillion yuan, making it one of the moderately developed countries. The national forest coverage rate will be 26%; the quality of surface water will reach above Class III, and the quality of offshore waters will reach Class II or above; and urban air quality will reach national excellent standards. By 2050, the country will have a population of 1.365 billion and GDP 380 trillion yuan, entering the ranks of high-income countries. The national forest coverage rate will be 30%; the water quality of surface water and offshore waters will reach Class II standards; and the urban air quality will reach the level of developed countries. There is still a clear gap between the reality and the vision. To achieve the two phased goals of the Beautiful China Initiative as scheduled, we need to vigorously promote pollution reduction, carbon reduction, green expansion, grain increase, and green development in the future.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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