Forecast of China’s Economic Growth Rate in 2023 and Policy Suggestions

Authors

Xikang CHEN, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Cuihong YANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Kunfu ZHU, School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Huijuan WANG, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
Xinru LI, School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Jie YIN, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Keywords

economic forecast, economic situation analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), policy suggestions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

China's economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China's economic development in 2023. It is expected that China's medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China's economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China's economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy recommendations are further put forward based on the analysis, including strengthening the adjustment of macro-policy, implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, boosting domestic consumption, increasing employment and promoting investment, striving to stabilize the macro-economic market, preventing and defusing risks in major fields, and leveraging China's advantages in the global industrial chain.

First page

81

Last Page

90

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2022年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议. 中国科学院院刊. 2022, 37(1):68-77. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. Forecast of China's economic growth rate for

1 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2022年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议. 中国科学院院刊. 2022, 37(1):68-77.

Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. Forecast of China's economic growth rate for 2022 and policy suggestions. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences. 2022, 37(1):68-77. (in Chinese)

2 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2023年中国GDP增长速度分析与预测//中国科学院预测科学研究中心. 2023年中国经济预测与展望. 北京:科学出版社, 2023.

Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. China GDP Growth Rate Forecast for 2023//Centre for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. China Economic Forecast for 2023. Beijing:Science Press, 2023. (in Chinese)

Recommended Citation

CHEN, Xikang; YANG, Cuihong; ZHU, Kunfu; WANG, Huijuan; LI, Xinru; and YIN, Jie (2023) "Forecast of China’s Economic Growth Rate in 2023 and Policy Suggestions," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 38 : Iss. 1 , Article 8.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20221226001
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol38/iss1/8