Analysis on Development and Risks of China’s Food Production During 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Authors

Cuihong YANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFollow
Kang LIN, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xiang GAO, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Xikang CHEN, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Shouyang WANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Keywords

grain output; food production; risks; 14th Five-Year Plan period

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

Food security is crucial to national security. Thus, it is an urgent task to figure out the potential risks that threaten China's food security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and how to cope with those risks. This paper provides an outlook for the development of China's food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and then points out the potential risks faced by food production. The paper demonstrates that China's food production will achieve a steady development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the grain output will reach more than 690 Mt by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The paper argues that the main potential risks faced by food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period include the increasing intensive constraints on natural and labor resources, the slow development of the seed industry, the low degree of scale and mechanization, the over-concentration phenomenon, and the frequent occurrence of major events. In the end, corresponding suggestions are proposed corresponding to the above risks.

First page

1088

Last Page

1098

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 徐磊, 张峭.中国粮食主产区粮食生产风险度量与分析.统计与决策, 2011, 27(21):110-112.

Xu L, Zhang Q.Risk measurement and analysis of grain production in major grain producing areas in China.Statistics & Decision, 2011, 27(21):110-112.(in Chinese)

2 杜鹰.中国的粮食安全战略(下).农村工作通讯, 2020, 65(22):17-21.

Du Y.Food security in China.Newsletter About Work in Rural Areas, 2020, 65(22):17-21.(in Chinese)

3 朱晶, 臧星月, 李天祥.新发展格局下中国粮食安全风险及其防范.中国农村经济, 2021, 37(9):2-21.

Zhu J, Zang X Y, Li T X.China's food security risks and prevention strategy under the new development pattern.Chinese Rural Economy, 2021, 37(9):2-21.(in Chinese)

4 何可, 宋洪远.资源环境约束下的中国粮食安全:内涵、挑战与政策取向.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2021, 21(3):45-57.

He K, Song H Y.China's food security under the constraints of resources and environment:Connotation, challenges and policy orientation.Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 21(3):45-57.(in Chinese)

5 王浩, 杨贵羽, 杨朝晖.水土资源约束下保障粮食安全的战略思考.中国科学院院刊, 2013, 28(3):329-336.

Wang H, Yang G Y, Yang C H.Thinking of agriculture development in China based on regional water resources and land cultivation.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013, 28(3):329-336.(in Chinese)

6 D'Amour, Reitsma F, Baiocchi G, et al.Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.PNAS, 2017, 114(34):8939-8944.

7 Deng X Z, Huang J K, Rozelle S, et al.Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China.Land Use Policy, 2015, 45:1-7.

8 陈浮, 刘俊娜, 常媛媛, 等.中国耕地非粮化空间格局分异及驱动机制.中国土地科学, 2021, 35(9):33-43.

Chen F, Liu J N, Chang Y Y, et al.Spatial pattern differentiation of non-grain cultivated land and its driving factors in China.China Land Science, 2021, 35(9):33-43.(in Chinese)

9 陈雨生, 陈志敏, 江一帆.农业科技进步和土地改良对我国耕地质量的影响.农业经济问题, 2021, 42(9):132-144.

Chen Y S, Chen Z M, Jiang Y F.Effects of agricultural science and technology progress and land improvement on cultivated land quality in China.Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2021, 42(9):132-144.(in Chinese)

10 徐建明, 孟俊, 刘杏梅, 等.我国农田土壤重金属污染防治与粮食安全保障.中国科学院院刊, 2018, 33(2):153-159.

Xu J M, Meng J, Liu X M, et al.Control of heavy metal pollution in farmland of China in terms of food security.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2018, 33(2):153-159.(in Chinese)

11 王转林, 王金霞, 陈煌, 等.""八五""时期以来中国北方灌溉投资的变化趋势及村庄新增灌溉投资的影响因素.中国农村经济, 2021, 37(8):103-124.

Wang Z L, Wang J X, Chen H, et al.The changing trend of irrigation investment in Northern China since the Eighth FiveYear Plan period and the factors affecting the new irrigation investment in villages.Chinese Rural Economy, 2021, 37(8):103-124.(in Chinese)

12 Zhang P, Zhang J J, Chen M P.Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture:The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2017, 83:8-31.

13 李建伟.我国劳动力供求格局、技术进步与经济潜在增长率.管理世界, 2020, 36(4):96-113.

Li J W.Labor supply and demand pattern, technological progress and potential economic growth rate in China.Management World, 2020, 36(4):96-113.(in Chinese)

14 黄季焜, 靳少泽.未来谁来种地:基于我国农户劳动力就业代际差异视角.农业技术经济, 2015, 34(1):4-10.

Huang J K, Jin S Z.Who will farm the land in the future:Based on the perspective of the intergenerational difference of rural household labor employment in China.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015, 34(1):4-10.(in Chinese)

15 Zhang L X, Dong Y Q, Liu C F, et al.Off-farm employment over the past four decades in rural China.China Agricultural Economic Review, 2018, 10(2):190-214.

16 苏卫良.未来谁来种地-基于我国农业劳动力供给国际比较及应对策略选择.农业经济与管理, 2021, 12(3):61-70.

Su W L.Who would do farming in the future? Comparative analysis of China's aging problem of agricultural labor supply with other countries and countermeasure strategical choices.Agricultural Economics and Management, 2021, 12(3):61-70.(in Chinese)

17 薛勇彪, 种康, 韩斌, 等.创新分子育种科技支撑我国种业发展.中国科学院院刊, 2018, 33(9):893-899.

Xue Y B, Chong K, Han B, et al.Innovation and achievements of designer breeding by molecular modules in China.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2018, 33(9):893-899.(in Chinese)

18 徐一兰, 傅爱斌, 陈光尧.中国种业发展的困境与对策.中国种业, 2020, 39(11):13-17.

Xu Y L, Fu A B, Chen G Y.Difficulties and countermeasures of seed industry development in China.China Seed Industry, 2020, 39(11):13-17.(in Chinese)

19 杜鹰.小农生产与农业现代化.中国农村经济, 2018, (10):2-6.

Du Y.Small-scale production and agricultural modernization.Chinese Rural Economy, 2018, (10):2-6.(in Chinese)

20 杨印生, 陈旭.日本农业机械化经验分析.现代日本经济, 2018, 37(2):77-86.

Yang Y S, Chen X.Japanese experience in agricultural mechanization.Contemporary Economy of Japan, 2018, 37(2):77-86.(in Chinese)

21 谢玲红, 吕开宇.""十四五""时期农村劳动力转移就业的五大问题.经济学家, 2020, 32(10):56-64.

Xie L H, Lv K Y.The five major issues of rural labor force transfer and employment in the ""14th Five-Year Plan"" period.Economist, 2020, 32(10):56-64.(in Chinese)

22 张滢.东北三省典型黑土区耕地数量与质量动态变化研究.沈阳:沈阳农业大学, 2020.

Zhang Y.Study on the Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land Quantity and Quality in Three Typical Black Soil Areas of Northeast China.Shenyang:Shenyang Agricultural University, 2020.(in Chinese)

23 宋莉莉, 张琳, 杨艳涛, 等.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国粮食产业的影响分析.中国农业科技导报, 2020, 22(6):12-16.

Song L L, Zhang L, Yang Y T, et al.Influence of COVID-19 epidemic on China's grain industry.Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2020, 22(6):12-16.(in Chinese)

24 辛翔飞, 王济民.须高度重视我国粮食净调出省份过度集中.宏观经济管理, 2016, 32(10):53-55.

Xin X F, Wang J M.Must attach great importance to our country grain net transfer province excessive concentration.Hongguan Jingji Guanli, 2016, 32(10):53-55.(in Chinese)"

Recommended Citation

YANG, Cuihong; LIN, Kang; GAO, Xiang; CHEN, Xikang; and WANG, Shouyang (2022) "Analysis on Development and Risks of China’s Food Production During 14th Five-Year Plan Period," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 37 : Iss. 8 , Article 6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20220118001
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol37/iss8/6