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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

S&T foresight, think tank, double helix methodology, strategy study, data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS), mechanismimpact-policy-solution (MIPS)

Document Type

Think Tank Research

Abstract

Science and technology (S&T) foresight is an important form of S&T development strategy study. Based on the needs of economic and social development and the law of S&T innovation and development, S&T foresight is a process of forming a consensus on the medium and long-term S&T development trends among experts in multiple disciplines and fields, so that to provide scientific basis and decision support for S&T planning and policy making. With the rapid development of technology over the world, carrying out S&T foresight is crucial for China to seize opportunities for technological innovation, seize the frontier and opportunities of technological revolution, realize selfreliance and self-improvement in S&T, and build into an S&T giant. However, as a large-scale think tank research project, S&T foresight faces systemic challenges and collaborative challenges from the organization of a large number of multidisciplinary and multi-field research teams. Meanwhile, in the research process of S&T foresight, it faces interdisciplinary challenges, interrelated challenges, practical policy challenges, social influential challenges, innovative challenges, and uncertain challenges. There is an urgent need to form a comprehensive and systematic research ideas and methodology for S&T foresight of think tank. To this end, this study analyzes the thinking guidance, process guidance, and operation guidance of the think tank double helix methodology for the S&T foresight. The thinking guidance of the double helix methodology to the S&T foresight is mainly reflected in the design of the overall work plan. Under the guidance of the double helix methodology, S&T foresight needs to grasp the foresight goals of S&T development from the national strategic needs, and comb the internal mechanism of S&T foresight based on historical data and current situation analysis; under the mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) architecture, through parallel relationship decomposition, serial relationship decomposition, and matrix relationship decomposition and other decomposition methods, the S&T foresight project can be decomposed into a number of independent sub-problems with inherent logical connections; focusing on the sub-problem research needs, a research team consist of multi-field expert with vertical hierarchical and horizontal cross-cutting relationship is formed, and a progressing schedule should be reached to form time coordination and research collaboration under the guidance of datainformation-intelligence-solution (DIIS). The process guidance and operation guidance of the double helix methodology for S&T foresight are embodied in the four stages of DIIS. Firstly, in the data collection stage of S&T foresight, it is necessary to scan and review the progress of S&T foresight issues over the world as well as selection criteria, to form a multi-dimensional data database. Secondly, in the stage of information disclosure, it is necessary to form the judgement on the current state of S&T development, future development vision, and selection criteria. Thirdly, in the stage of intelligence analysis, the key directions of S&T foresight can be comprehensively shaped through repeated iterations of objective data analysis and expert judgments. Finally, research reports and policy recommendation reports are produced to provide policymaking support for the S&T development.

First page

160

Last Page

167

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

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