Forecast of China’s Economic Growth Rate for 2022 and Policy Suggestions

Authors

Xikang CHEN, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Cuihong YANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Kunfu ZHU, School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Huijuan WANG, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
Xinru LI, School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Qingyan JUANG, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Keywords

economic forecast, economic situation analysis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), policy suggestions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

Faced with the complex domestic and international environment, the Chinese government took various measures to coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development, earning recovered growth of the economy in 2021. In 2022, China's economic development will be facing greater uncertainty. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth is proposed. Based on the review and analysis of China's economic development in 2021, as well as the current domestic and international situation, China's economic growth rate is predicted to revert to normal level in 2022, with an annual growth rate of about 5.5%. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including implementing science-based measures in epidemic prevention and control, strengthening the cross-cycle policy adjustment, boosting consumption more vigorously, achieving the goal of "double carbon" scientifically and flexibly, and accelerating the development of digital economy and industrial digitization.

First page

68

Last Page

77

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 Chen X K, Guo J E, Yang C H. Yearly grain output predictions in China 1980-2004. Economic Systems Research, 2008, 20(2):139-150. 2 陈锡康, 杨翠红, 祝坤福, 等. 2022年中国GDP增长速度分析与预测//中国科学院预测科学研究中心. 2022年中国经济预测与展望. 北京:科学出版社, 2021. Chen X K, Yang C H, Zhu K F, et al. China GDP Growth Rate Forecast for 2022//Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. China Economic Forecast for 2022. Beijing:Science Press, 2021. (in Chinese)

Recommended Citation

CHEN, Xikang; YANG, Cuihong; ZHU, Kunfu; WANG, Huijuan; LI, Xinru; and JUANG, Qingyan (2022) "Forecast of China’s Economic Growth Rate for 2022 and Policy Suggestions," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 37 : Iss. 1 , Article 10.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20211210001
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol37/iss1/10