Evaluating Economic and Social Benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition

Authors

Hongyu ZHANG, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaFollow
Xiaodan HUANG, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Da ZHANG, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Xiliang ZHANG, Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaFollow

Keywords

carbon neutrality; energy transition; new energy; social benefits

Document Type

Energy Transition under Carbon Neutrality

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality, China's energy system needs a radical transition, and the development of new energy is of central importance. Based on the integrated assessment modeling framework, this study compares economic and social costs and benefits between a scenario reflecting the current energy transition momentum and a scenario of accelerated energy transition. We show that the accelerated energy transition dominated by new energy is essential to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and the air quality target required by Beautiful China. The large development of wind and solar power will further reduce their technology costs and the overall energy costs, which will benefit China's wind and solar equipment export and other exporting industries, supporting sustainable economic growth. In addition, the accelerated energy transition will create more jobs and health benefits and avoid substantial social costs of carbon emissions.

First page

1039

Last Page

1048

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 United Nations Environment Programme. Emissions Gap Report 2020. Nairobi:United Nations Environment Programme, 2020.

2 International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2020. Paris:IEA, 2020.

3 国家统计局能源司. 中国能源统计年鉴2020. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2021.

4 中国氢能联盟. 中国氢能源及燃料电池产业白皮书2020. 北京:人民日报出版社, 2021.

5 段宏波, 汪寿阳. 中国的挑战:全球温控目标从2℃ 到 1.5℃的战略调整. 管理世界, 2019, 35(10):50-63.

6 Duan H B, Zhou S, Jiang K J, et al. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5℃ warming limit. Science, 2021, 372:378-385.

7 项目综合报告编写组. 《中国长期低碳发展战略与转型路径研究》综合报告. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(11):1-25.

8 Yang Z L. Strategic Bargaining and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigations:An Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach. Cambridge:The MIT Press, 2008.

9 Moore F C, Diaz D B. Erratum:Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(3):280.

10 Dong H J, Dai H C, Dong L, et al. Pursuing air pollutant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in China:A provincial leveled analysis. Applied Energy, 2015, 144:165-174.

11 Cai W J, Hui J X, Wang C, et al. The Lancet Countdown on PM 2.5 pollution-related health impacts of China's projected carbon dioxide mitigation in the electric power generation sector under the Paris Agreement:A modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2018, 2(4):e151-e161.

12 Yang Y Z, Zhang H Y, Xiong W M, et al. Regional power system modeling for evaluating renewable energy development and CO2 emissions reduction in china. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2018, 73:142-151.

13 Huang X D, Chang S Y, Zheng D Q, et al. The role of BECCS in deep decarbonization of China's economy:A computable general equilibrium analysis. Energy Economics, 2020, 92:104968.

14 Zhang X, Ou X M, Yang X, et al. Socioeconomic burden of air pollution in China:Province-level analysis based on energy economic model. Energy Economics, 2017, 68:478-489.

15 Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. World Population Prospects:The 2019 Revision. New York:Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, 2019.

16 World Bank. Global Economic Prospects, June 2020. Washington, DC:World Bank, 2020.

17 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Interim Economic Outlook Forecasts. Paris:OECD, 2020.

18 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Washington, DC:IMF, 2020.

19 Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2019. Washington, DC:EIA, 2019.

20 Oxford Economics. World economy. Economic Outlook, 2020, 44(3):33-35.

21 国家发展改革委, 国家能源局. 能源生产与消费革命战略(2016-2030).[2021-01-09]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-04/25/5230568/files/286514af354e41578c57ca38d-5c4935b.pdf.

22 US Government Inter-Agency Working Group. Technical Support Document:Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866.[2020-12-11]. https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-12/documents/sc_co2_tsd_august_2016.pdf.

23 Rennert K, Kingdon C. Social Cost of Carbon 101, A review of the social cost of carbon, from a basic definition to the history of its use in policy analysis. Washington, DC:Resources for the Future, 2019.

Recommended Citation

ZHANG, Hongyu; HUANG, Xiaodan; ZHANG, Da; and ZHANG, Xiliang (2021) "Evaluating Economic and Social Benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 36 : Iss. 9 , Article 8.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210813003
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol36/iss9/8