Key Scientific and Technical Issues in Earth System Science Towards Achieving Carbon Neutrality in China

Authors

Zhaonan CAI, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaFollow
Lijing CHENG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFollow
Tingting LI, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai 519080, China
Xunhua ZHENG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Lin WANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Shenghui HAN, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Kai WANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xia QU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Fei JIANG, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Yongyu ZHANG, Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266101, China
Jianhua ZHU, Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Shangmin LONG, College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, China
Yang SUN, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Binghao JIA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Wenping YUAN, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Tianyi ZHANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Qing ZHANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Jinbo XIE, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Jiawen ZHU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Zhiqiang LIU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Lin WU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Dongxu YANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Ke WEI, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Lin WU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Wen ZHANG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Yi LIU, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Junji CAO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Keywords

carbon neutrality; carbon source; carbon sink; greenhouse gas; climate change; earth system model; climate monitoring

Document Type

S & T and Society

Abstract

The carbon neutrality strategy will be the largest orderly human activity in this century, which requires strong scientific supports. This study introduces some key scientific questions and remaining knowledge gaps in earth system science (i.e. atmosphere, land, ocean science), and also discusses some key techniques and the associated challenges, including Earth System Model, climate metrics, greenhouse gasses monitoring techniques, carbon inventories from regional to global scales. On this basis, this study recommends to construct climate monitoring system and platform in China, better describe and understand the earth system coupling processes and mechanisms. To consolidate the techniques for carbon neutrality, this study also suggests to build carbon monitoring and inventory assessment platform and to improve the Earth System Model.

First page

602

Last Page

613

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 Matthews J B R. Annex I:Glossary//Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P M, Pörtner H O, et al. Global Warming of 1.5℃. An IPCC Special Report. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2018:541-562.

2 中华人民共和国. 中华人民共和国气候变化第二次两年更新报告. (2018-12-01)[2021-05-09]. http://big5.mee.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.mee.gov.cn/ywgz/ydqhbh/wsqtkz/201907/P020190701765971866571.pdf.

3 叶笃正, 符淙斌, 季劲钧, 等. 有序人类活动与生存环境. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(4):453-460.

4 曾庆存. 自然控制论. 气候与环境研究, 1996, 1(1):11-20.

5 Rogelj J, Shindell D, Jiang K, et al. Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5℃ in the Context of Sustainable Development//Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P M, Pörtner H O, et al. Global Warming of 1.5℃. An IPCC Special Report. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2018:93-174.

6 IPCC. The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007.

7 IPCC. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013.

8 Pörtner H O, Roberts D C, Masson-Delmotte V, et al. Summary for Policymakers//IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2019.

9 Matthews H D, Tokarska K B, Nicholls Z R J, et al. Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 2020, 13(12):769-779.

10 龙上敏, 谢尚平, 刘秦玉, 等. 海洋对全球变暖的快慢响应与低温升目标. 科学通报, 2018, 63(Z1):558-570.

11 Cheng L J, Abraham J, Hausfather Z, et al. How fast are the oceans warming?. Science, 2019, 363:128-129.

12 Liu W, Lu J, Xie S P, et al. Southern Ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and storage in a warming climate:The role of meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 2018, 31(12):4727-4743.

13 Wen Q, Yao J, Döös K, et al. Decoding hosing and heating effects on global temperature and meridional circulations in a warming climate. Journal of Climate, 2018, 31(23):9605-9623.

14 Li X Q, Ting M F. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming:The relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 49(7/8):2863-2880.

15 Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R. Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(4):248-253.

16 周天军, 吴波, 郭准, 等. 东亚夏季风变化机理的模拟和未来变化的预估:成绩和问题、机遇和挑战. 大气科学, 2018, 42(4):902-934.

17 Keller D P, Lenton A, Scott V, et al. The carbon dioxide removal model intercomparison project (CDRMIP):Rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6.

Geoscientific Model Development, 2018, 11(3):1133-1160.

18 Tanaka K, O'Neill B C. The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5℃ and 2℃ temperature targets. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8(4):319-324.

19 Good P, Booth B B B, Chadwick R, et al. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. Nature Communications, 2016, 7:13667.

20 Qu X, Huang G. Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5℃ warming scenarios. Scientific Reports, 2018, 8(1):13794.

21 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Near-term climate change:Projections and predictability//Climate Change 2013-The Physical Science Basis:Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013:953-1028.

22 Gong H N, Wang L, Chen W, et al. Time-varying contribution of internal dynamics to wintertime land temperature trends over the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019, 46(24):14674-14682.

23 Gong H, Wang L, Chen W, et al. Attribution of the east Asian winter temperature trends during 1979-2018:Role of external forcing and internal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019, 46(19):10874-10881.

24 Wang J, Feng L, Palmer P I, et al. Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data. Nature, 2020, 586:720-723.

25 Piao S L, Fang J Y, Ciais P, et al. The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Nature, 2009, 458:1009-1013.

26 Tian H Q, Xu X F, Lu C Q, et al. Net exchanges of CO2, CH4, and N2O between China's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and their contributions to global climate warming. Journal of Geophysical Research:Biogeosciences, 2011, 116:G02011.

27 Wang G C, Huang Y, Zhang W, et al. Quantifying carbon input for targeted soil organic carbon sequestration in China's croplands. Plant and Soil, 2015, 394(1/2):57-71.

28 Jiang F, Chen J M, Zhou L X, et al. A comprehensive estimate of recent carbon sinks in China using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Scientific Reports, 2016, 6:22130.

29 He H L, Wang S Q, Zhang L, et al. Altered trends in carbon uptake in China's terrestrial ecosystems under the enhanced summer monsoon and warming hiatus. National Science Review, 2019, 6(3):505-514.

30 Zhang H F, Chen B Z, van der Laan-Luijkx I T, et al. Net terrestrial CO2 exchange over China during 2001-2010 estimated with an ensemble data assimilation system for atmospheric CO

58 Han P F, Zeng N, Oda T, et al. A city-level comparison of fossil-fuel and industry processes-induced CO2 emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from eight emission inventories. Carbon Balance and Management, 2020, 15(1):1-16.

59 Thompson R L, Patra P K, Chevallier F, et al. Top-down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s. Nature Communications, 2016, 7(1):1-10.

60 Monteil G, Broquet G, Scholze M, et al. The regional European atmospheric transport inversion comparison, EUROCOM:First results on European-wide terrestrial carbon fluxes for the period 2006-2015.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020, 20(20):12063-12091.

61 Jiang F, Wang H M, Chen J M, et al. Regional CO2 fluxes from 2010 to 2015 inferred from GOSAT XCO2 retrievals using a new version of the Global Carbon Assimilation System. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2021, 21(3):1963-1985.

62 Buendia E, Tanabe K, Kranjc A, et al. Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Geneva:IPCC, 2019.

63 National Res晥乡慲ch丠噃兯乵杮档卩幬鈠Report.匠乖e乲噩兦乹祩孮执朠內牲祥enhouse gas em彩敳轳io杮关区Me潴桨兯ds笠to丠噳湵坰坰塯硲年传扩乮汴健卲卮镡顴io汮偡卬匠硣穬轩屭ate agreements. Washington DC:National Academies Press, 2010.

64 Guan D, Liu Z, Geng Y, et al. The gigatonne gap in China's carbon dioxide inventories. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(9):672-675.

65 Basu S, Lehman J S, Miller P B, et al. Estimating US fossil fuel CO2 emissions from measurements of 14C in atmospheric CO2. PNAS, 2020, 117(24), 13300-13307.

66 Super I, van der Gon H A C D, van der Molen M K, et al. Optimizing a dynamic fossil fuel CO2 emission model with CTDAS (CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell, v1.0) for an urban area using atmospheric observations of CO2, CO, NOx, and SO2. Geoscientific Model Development, 2020, 13(6):2695-2721.9):2445-2463.

44 German Advisory Council on Global Change. The Accounting of Biological Sinks and Sources under the Kyoto Protocol:A Step Forwards or Backwards for Global Environmental Protection?. Bremerhaven:German Advisory Council on Global Change, 1998.

45 Mitra S, Wassmann R, Vlek P L G. An appraisal of global wetland area and its organic carbon stock. Current Science, 2005, 88(1):25-35.

46 Mitsch W J, Bernal B, Nahlik A M, et al. Wetlands, carbon, and climate change. Landscape Ecology, 2013, 28(4):583-597.

47 Zhang C H, Ju W M, Chen J M, et al. China's forest biomass carbon sink based on seven inventories from 1973 to 2008.

Climatic Change, 2013, 118(3/4):933-948.

48 Zhang Y, Zhao M X, Cui Q, et al. Processes of coastal ecosystem carbon sequestration and approaches for increasing carbon sink. Science China Earth Sciences, 2017, 60(5):809-820.

49 Zhang Y Y, Zhang J H, Liang Y T, et al. Carbon sequestration processes and mechanisms in coastal mariculture environments in China. Science China Earth Sciences, 2017, 60(12):2097-2107.

50 Jiao N Z, Liang Y T, Zhang Y Y, et al. Carbon pools and fluxes in the China seas and adjacent oceans. Science China Earth Sciences, 2018, 61(11):1535-1563.

51 焦念志, 刘纪化, 石拓, 等. 实施海洋负排放践行碳中和战略. 中国科学:地球科学, 2021, 51(4):632-643.

52 Zhang H, Zhang M, Jin J, et al. CAS-ESM 2:Description and climate simulation performance of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Earth System Model (ESM) version 2.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2020, 12:e2020MS002210.

53 Song X L, Zhang G J. The roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ syndrome in the NCAR CESM:I. atmospheric processes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2018, 10(3):842-866.

54 Liu Y, Wang J, Yao L, et al. The TanSat mission:Preliminary global observations. Science Bulletin, 2018, 63(18):1200-1207.

55 刘文清. ""高分五号卫星载荷研制""专辑. 大气与环境光学学报, 2019, 14(1). 合肥:中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院, 2019.

56 刘毅, 王婧, 车轲, 等. 温室气体的卫星遥感——进展与趋势. 遥感学报, 2021, 25(1):53-64.

57 Papale D. Ideas and perspectives:Enhancing

Recommended Citation

CAI, Zhaonan; CHENG, Lijing; LI, Tingting; ZHENG, Xunhua; WANG, Lin; HAN, Shenghui; WANG, Kai; QU, Xia; JIANG, Fei; ZHANG, Yongyu; ZHU, Jianhua; LONG, Shangmin; SUN, Yang; JIA, Binghao; YUAN, Wenping; ZHANG, Tianyi; ZHANG, Qing; XIE, Jinbo; ZHU, Jiawen; LIU, Zhiqiang; WU, Lin; YANG, Dongxu; WEI, Ke; WU, Lin; ZHANG, Wen; LIU, Yi; and CAO, Junji (2021) "Key Scientific and Technical Issues in Earth System Science Towards Achieving Carbon Neutrality in China," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 36 : Iss. 5 , Article 16.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210402002
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol36/iss5/16