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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

import and export, forecast, system analysis, trade frictions

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research

Abstract

This study analyzes the situation of China's foreign trade from January to November in 2020, and then three forecasting scenarios are constructed based on four aspects, including China's economic growth, the international demand, Sino-US trade friction, and the development of the COVID-19. Under these scenarios, a new decomposition and composition methodology is proposed to forecast 2021 China's foreign trade, by integrating the econometric models, artificial intelligence methods, and the system analysis method. In 2021, under the baseline scenario that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under certain control, the global economy exhibits slow recovery and China's economy grows steadily, the total exports and imports in 2021 are expected to be around 4.9 trillion US dollars with a 5.7 percent growth rate year-on-year. Exports are expected to be around 2.7 trillion US dollars with a 6.2 percent growth rate year-on-year, and imports are expected to be around 2.2 trillion US dollars with a 4.9 percent year-on-year growth rate. The trade surplus is about 576.6 billion US dollars. Under optimistic scenario in 2021, China's export and import growth rates are expected to increase by 3.0 and 3.3 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively. Under pessimistic scenario in 2021, China's export and import growth rates are expected to decrease by 2.9 and 3.2 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, respectively.

First page

47

Last Page

53

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

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