Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


economic forecast, economic situation analysis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), policy suggestion

Document Type

Strategy & Policy Decision Research


Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China's economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China's economic development in 2020 and forecasts China's economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China's economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


[1] 许宪春, 常子豪, 唐雅. 从统计数据看新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济的影响. 经济学动态, 2020, (5): 41-51.

[2] Chen X, Guo J E, Ya ng, C. Yearly grain output predictions in China 1980-2004. Economic Systems Research, 2008, 20(2): 139-150. DOI:10.1080/09535310802075273

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