economic growth; price indexes; investment; consumption; foreign trade; forecasting
China's GDP growth rate showed a steady slowdown quarter by quarter in 2018, it is expected to reach about 6.6% annually, 0.3 percentages points lower year on year. Prices kept stable across 2018, of which CPI showed a moderate rise, while PPI and PPIRM declined in growth rate. GDP growth is projected to slow modestly in 2019, with a slight decline from the first to the second quarter, but turn to upward in the third and fourth quarters. The annual GDP growth rate is projected to be about 6.3%. Price continues to maintain the moderate upward trend, the annual CPI is expected to increase about 2.0%. The import and export will remain robust in growth though with a lower rate over 2018, the total volume of import and export is expected to grow up by about 7.9%, of which exports rise by about 6.6%, imports rise by about 9.4% respectively. The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2019, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected around 8.5%. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment might rise slightly in 2019, it is expected to reach around 6.0%.
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
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魏云捷, 孙玉莹, 张珣, 等. 2019年我国进出口形势分析与预测//中国科学院预测科学研究中心. 2019中国经济预测与展望.北京: 科学出版社, 2019.
张同斌, 孟令蝶, 陈磊. 2018年固定资产投资态势分析与2019年走势展望//中国科学院预测科学研究中心. 2019中国经济预测与展望.北京: 科学出版社, 2019.
Center for Forecasting Science
"Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2019,"
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 34
, Article 1.
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol34/iss1/1