Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


economic growth; price indexes; investment; consumption; foreign trade; forecasting

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China's GDP growth rate showed a steady slowdown quarter by quarter in 2018, it is expected to reach about 6.6% annually, 0.3 percentages points lower year on year. Prices kept stable across 2018, of which CPI showed a moderate rise, while PPI and PPIRM declined in growth rate. GDP growth is projected to slow modestly in 2019, with a slight decline from the first to the second quarter, but turn to upward in the third and fourth quarters. The annual GDP growth rate is projected to be about 6.3%. Price continues to maintain the moderate upward trend, the annual CPI is expected to increase about 2.0%. The import and export will remain robust in growth though with a lower rate over 2018, the total volume of import and export is expected to grow up by about 7.9%, of which exports rise by about 6.6%, imports rise by about 9.4% respectively. The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2019, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected around 8.5%. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment might rise slightly in 2019, it is expected to reach around 6.0%.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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