Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


oil resources; Central Asia; degree of guarantee; investment risk; prevention and control measures

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The reserve of oil resources in Central Asia is huge, and it has an important strategic position in the world's energy geopolitical landscape. It plays an important role in China's promotion of a diversified oil import strategy and expansion of oil imports from land pipelines. The article analyzes the degree of protection of China's oil resources and finds that although China's investment in Central Asia's oil has kept increasing, the guarantee level of Central Asian oil for China's oil imports has been extremely low. On this basis, five risk factors and 18 risk indicators such as politics, policies and regulations, economics, social culture, and infrastructure were selected to construct a multinational oil investment risk assessment index system. Inviting authoritative experts in the field to score points and applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to quantitatively evaluate the risks of oil investment in Central Asia. It is found that:(1) the risks of policies and regulations are high risks; (2) the economic risks, socio-cultural risks and political risks are general risks; (3) the infrastructure risk is low risk. Among all the risk indicators, seven indicators, such as the degree of difficulty in obtaining mining rights, the degree of intervention by the host country, and ethnic cultural and religious differences, have very high probability of occurrence of high risks. In the future, China's oil investment cooperation with Central Asia must not only scientifically and reasonably avoid risks based on the results of risk assessment, but also seek solutions. We should choose a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation model to ensure our advantageous position in the development of oil resources in Central Asia.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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