•  
  •  
 

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

oil resources; Central Asia; degree of guarantee; investment risk; prevention and control measures

Document Type

Article

Abstract

The reserve of oil resources in Central Asia is huge, and it has an important strategic position in the world's energy geopolitical landscape. It plays an important role in China's promotion of a diversified oil import strategy and expansion of oil imports from land pipelines. The article analyzes the degree of protection of China's oil resources and finds that although China's investment in Central Asia's oil has kept increasing, the guarantee level of Central Asian oil for China's oil imports has been extremely low. On this basis, five risk factors and 18 risk indicators such as politics, policies and regulations, economics, social culture, and infrastructure were selected to construct a multinational oil investment risk assessment index system. Inviting authoritative experts in the field to score points and applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to quantitatively evaluate the risks of oil investment in Central Asia. It is found that:(1) the risks of policies and regulations are high risks; (2) the economic risks, socio-cultural risks and political risks are general risks; (3) the infrastructure risk is low risk. Among all the risk indicators, seven indicators, such as the degree of difficulty in obtaining mining rights, the degree of intervention by the host country, and ethnic cultural and religious differences, have very high probability of occurrence of high risks. In the future, China's oil investment cooperation with Central Asia must not only scientifically and reasonably avoid risks based on the results of risk assessment, but also seek solutions. We should choose a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation model to ensure our advantageous position in the development of oil resources in Central Asia.

First page

594

Last Page

600

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

侯明扬. 2016年全球油气资源并购市场特点及前景展望.国际石油经济, 2017, 25(3):7-14.

李同昇, 龙冬平.中亚国家地缘位置与中国地缘战略的若干思考.地理科学进展, 2014, 33(3):303-314.

杨宇, 刘毅, 金凤君.能源地缘政治视角下中国与中亚—俄罗斯国际能源合作模式.地理研究, 2015, 34(2):213-224.

刘春涌.中亚地区各国矿产资源现状.中亚信息, 2004, (8):25-28.

杨中强.中亚石油与21世纪的中国石油安全.国际论坛, 2001, (1):34-39.

曹斌, 胡勇, 岳小文, 等.哈萨克斯坦原油生产和出口现状及未来趋势.石油规划设计, 2015, 26(4):5-7.

徐士鹏, 吴洲, 来小军, 等.土库曼斯坦油田资源及发展规划剖析.新疆石油科技, 2017, (2):68-71.

李恒海, 邱瑞照.中亚五国矿产资源勘查开发指南.武汉:中国地质大学出版社, 2010.

郑俊章, 周海燕, 黄先雄.哈萨克斯坦地区石油地质基本特征及勘探潜力分析.中国石油勘探, 2009, 14(2):80-86.

BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. [2017-06-01]. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statisticalreview-of-world-energy.html.

毛汉英.中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国能源合作前景展望.地理科学进展, 2013, 32(10):1433-1443.

胡健, 焦兵, 刘倩倩."丝绸之路经济带"战略下的中国与中亚国家能源合作现状与发展前景.人文杂志, 2017, (1):29-36.

寇忠.中亚油气资源出口新格局.国际石油经济, 2010, 18(5):39-47.

蒋焕.中亚油气合作风险分析及对策.石油化工技术与经济, 2014, 30(2):1-5.

Li H, Dong K, Jiang H, et al. Risk Assessment of China's Overseas Oil Refining Investment Using a Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method. Sustainability, 2017, 9(5):696-713.

Xie D. Risk and prevention of Chinese Foreign Direct investment under financial crisis. 2010 Second ⅡTA International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. Qingdao: IEEE, 2010.

杨嵘, 夏龙兵.我国对中亚地区油气资源投资的风险研究.西安石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2017, 26(2):1-8.

杨宇. 全球石油资源开发利用格局演变与中国海外石油合作模式研究. 北京: 中国科学院大学研究生院, 2013.

叶先灯, 郭鹏, 栾海亮.油气上下游一体化合作模式的探索与实践.国际经济合作, 2011, (9):58-60.

赵振智, 赵松.我国国际石油合作中的问题与对策.改革与战略, 2009, 25(9):33-35, 52.

Download
Request a Copy

Share

COinS