Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


China; Silk Road countries; trade cooperation; spatial-temporal characteristics; trade potential

Document Type



'Unimpeded trade' is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of foreign trade between China and Silk Road Countries (SRCs) for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along Silk Roads. Based on review of the macro situation along Silk Road regions, this paper first analyzes spatial-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and SRCs, and then estimates trade potential using in-sample and regression approaches. The finding of this paper are salutary. First, with the rapid growth of foreign trade between China and SRCs, the trade network along Silk Road regions are getting closer and closer; meanwhile, with the increase of China's export to SRCs and SRCs' import from China, the trade balance between China and SRCs has shifted from trade deficit to trade surplus since 2014. Second, we can identify three trade communities and two sub communities in the trade network along Silk Road regions, through community detection algorithm, in which China is the core node of the biggest trade community. As for China, Southeast Asia is the most close trade partner, followed by West Asia; while the trade volume between China and Central Asia is still small. Third, the regression results indicate that, in 2020, the most significant potential trade partners for China are some Southeast Asia countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

First page


Last Page





Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


刘卫东, 田锦尘, 欧晓理, 等."一带一路"战略研究.北京:商务印书馆, 2017.

国家发展和改革委员会, 外交部, 商务部.推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动.北京:外交出版社, 2015.

公丕萍, 宋周莺, 刘卫东.中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易的商品格局.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):590-599.

邹嘉龄, 刘春腊, 尹国庆, 等.中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):598-605.

邹嘉龄, 刘卫东.2001-2013年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易网络分析.地理科学, 2016, 36(11):1629-1636.

王美昌, 徐康宁."一带一路"国家双边贸易与中国经济增长的动态关系——基于空间交互作用视角.世界经济研究, 2016, (2):101-110.

桑百川, 杨立卓.拓展我国与"一带一路"国家的贸易关系——基于竞争性与互补性研究.经济问题, 2015, (8):1-5.

Cinar M, Johnson J, Geusz K.Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries.China & World Economy, 2016, 24(1):85-103.

公丕萍, 宋周莺, 刘卫东.中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易格局分析.地理研究, 2015, 34(5):812-824.

韩永辉, 邹建华."一带一路"背景下的中国与西亚国家贸易合作现状和前景展望.中国经贸, 2014, (8):21-28.

杨李卓, 刘雪娇, 余稳策."一带一路"背景下我国与中亚国家贸易互补性研究.上海经济研究, 2015, (11):94-103.

杜宇霞, 项文娟.中国与东南亚地区国家贸易现状分析.现代经济信息, 2016, (19):155-156.

何敏, 张宁宁, 黄泽群.中国与"一带一路"国家农产品贸易竞争性和互补性分析.农业经济问题, 2016, (11):51-60.

刘建国, 梁琦."一带一路"能源合作问题研究.中国能源, 2015, (7):17-20.

Liu W D, Dunford M.Inclusive globalization:unpacking China's Belt and Road Initiative.Area Development and Policy, 2016, 1(3):323-340.

Blondel V, Guillaume J, Lambiotte R, et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks.Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory, 2008, 25(10):155-168.

世界银行. 2015年世界发展报告: 思维、社会与行为. [2016-3-20]. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/126291473335233501.