Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Foreign Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Roads

Authors

Song Zhouying, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Che Shuyun, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Zhang Wei, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Keywords

China; Silk Road countries; trade cooperation; spatial-temporal characteristics; trade potential

Document Type

Article

Abstract

'Unimpeded trade' is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of foreign trade between China and Silk Road Countries (SRCs) for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along Silk Roads. Based on review of the macro situation along Silk Road regions, this paper first analyzes spatial-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and SRCs, and then estimates trade potential using in-sample and regression approaches. The finding of this paper are salutary. First, with the rapid growth of foreign trade between China and SRCs, the trade network along Silk Road regions are getting closer and closer; meanwhile, with the increase of China's export to SRCs and SRCs' import from China, the trade balance between China and SRCs has shifted from trade deficit to trade surplus since 2014. Second, we can identify three trade communities and two sub communities in the trade network along Silk Road regions, through community detection algorithm, in which China is the core node of the biggest trade community. As for China, Southeast Asia is the most close trade partner, followed by West Asia; while the trade volume between China and Central Asia is still small. Third, the regression results indicate that, in 2020, the most significant potential trade partners for China are some Southeast Asia countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

First page

363

Last Page

369

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

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Recommended Citation

Zhouying, Song; Shuyun, Che; and Wei, Zhang (2017) "Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Foreign Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Roads," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 32 : Iss. 4 , Article 5.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.04.005
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss4/5