Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


international oil market; oil price forecast; trend analgsis

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In 2017, the implementation progress of OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement will be the biggest uncertainty. Both the supply and demand sides in the international oil market are facing great uncertainty, in which the recovery speed of U.S. shale oil production, the redound degree of OECD countries' oil demand and the new oil consumption growth in emerging economies will affect the balance of the oil market. In addition, the uncertainty of U.S. interest rate hike, the active degree of market speculation and geopolitical Black Swan events will increase the short-term volatility of oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a narrow range in 2017, and the Brent average year price may stand at 56 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 55 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 1 dollar per barrel.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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