International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2017

Authors

Ji Qiang, Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Liu Bingyue, Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
Zhao Wanli, School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Ma Yanran, Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
Fan Ying, School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

Keywords

international oil market; oil price forecast; trend analgsis

Document Type

Article

Abstract

In 2017, the implementation progress of OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement will be the biggest uncertainty. Both the supply and demand sides in the international oil market are facing great uncertainty, in which the recovery speed of U.S. shale oil production, the redound degree of OECD countries' oil demand and the new oil consumption growth in emerging economies will affect the balance of the oil market. In addition, the uncertainty of U.S. interest rate hike, the active degree of market speculation and geopolitical Black Swan events will increase the short-term volatility of oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a narrow range in 2017, and the Brent average year price may stand at 56 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 55 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 1 dollar per barrel.

First page

196

Last Page

201

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

OPEC. Monthly oil market report.[2016-12-14]. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

EIA. Short-term energy outlook.[2016-12-10]. http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

IMF. World economic outlook.[2016-10-04]. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/

United Nations. World economic situation and prospects 2016.[2016-05-12]. https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/document_gem/global-economic-monitoring-unit/worldeconomic-situation-and-prospects-wesp-report/

Recommended Citation

Qiang, Ji; Bingyue, Liu; Wanli, Zhao; Yanran, Ma; and Ying, Fan (2017) "International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2017," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 32 : Iss. 2 , Article 10.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.02.010
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss2/10