"Gray Rhino"; "Black Swan"; debt; lever rate; external impact
After a long period of high-speed growth and the changing of international economic condition, China is facing a severe systemic risk. China's government pays a great attention to the risk, and is engaging to prevent both "Gray Rhino" and "Black Swan". This paper tries to analyze the "Gray Rhino" and "Black Swan" for China's economy. The analysis suggests that the largest "Gray Rhino" is the fast expanding debt and the high level of lever rates, and "Black Swan" comes from the unpredicted large external impact. There are two potential factors make the "Gray Rhino" run, namely, economic slowdown and interest rate hike. The biggest possible risk is that the breakout of "Gray Rhino" is induced by the "Black Swan" via the trade channel.
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Xiaoqiang, Luo; Quanqi, Liang; and Xiaoguang, Yang
""Gray Rhino" and "Black Swan" for Current China's Economy,"
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 32
, Article 10.
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss12/10