Impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural production and proposed countermeasures

Authors

• Yaning CHEN, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaFollow
• Yanjun SHEN, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
• Ming JIANG, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

Keywords

climate resilience, food security, climate change adaptation, agricultural modernization

Abstract

Climate change is among the most severe global challenges today. It directly impacts agricultural production, which is highly dependent on climatic conditions, imposing multi-dimensional and systemic risks and challenges on China’s agriculture. Drawing on observational data and analysis of the literature, this study systematically examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in China. Over the past half century, China’s annual mean surface temperature has risen significantly at a rate of 0.31℃ per decade, exceeding the contemporaneous global average. This trend has intensified climatic variability and extremes, disrupted the prior balance of agricultural water resources, and led to the frequent and widespread occurrence of rapid drought–flood transitions, alternating cold and warm spells, and similar events. These developments have posed multiple risks for agricultural production, including altered crop phenology and aggravated pest and disease pressures that undermine production stability; asynchrony between water and heat and the normalization of drought, which exacerbate conflicts over water resources; and the frequent occurrence of extreme events, which drives up production costs and operational risks. In response to these challenges, adaptation to climate change must be deeply integrated into the national food security strategy. Systems thinking should be employed to advance proactive adaptation, and efforts should be accelerated to build a climate-smart agricultural system with science and technological innovation at its core, infrastructure as its backbone, a robust policy framework as its safeguard, and optimization of industrial structure as its guiding orientation, so as to comprehensively enhance agrometeorological resilience and the capacity for sustainable development.

First page

636

Last Page

643

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.

References

1. Sun Y, Zhang X B, Ding Y H, et al. Understanding human influence on climate change in China. National Science Review, 2021, 9(3): nwab113.

2. 中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化蓝皮书（2025）. 北京: 科学出版社, 2025. National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Blue Book on Climate Change in China (2025). Beijing: Science Press, 2025. (in Chinese)

3. 黄萌田, 周佰铨, 翟盘茂. 极端天气气候事件变化对荒漠化、土地退化和粮食安全的影响. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(1): 17-27. Huang M T, Zhou B Q, Zhai P M. Impacts of extreme weather and climate events on desertification, land degradation and food security. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(1): 17-27. (in Chinese)

4. 中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化蓝皮书（2023）. 北京: 科学出版社, 2023. National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Blue Book on Climate Change in China(2023). Beijing: Science Press, 2023. (in Chinese)

5. PAGES 2k Consortium. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6(5): 339-346.

6. 葛全胜, 刘健, 方修琦, 等. 过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期. 地理学报, 2013, 68(5): 579-592. Ge Q S, Liu J, Fang X Q, et al. General characteristics of temperature change and centennial warm periods during the past 2000 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(5): 579-592. (in Chinese)

7. 郑景云, 刘洋, 吴茂炜, 等. 中国中世纪气候异常期温度的多尺度变化特征及区域差异. 地理学报, 2019, 74(7): 1281-1291. Zheng J Y, Liu Y, Wu M W, et al. Evidences and regional differences on multi-scales in Medieval Climate Anomaly over China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1281-1291. (in Chinese)

8. 陈敏鹏, 苏询. 趋利避害：农业面临的气候变化影响及适应举措. 可持续发展经济导刊, 2023, (Z1): 66-70. Chen M P, Su X. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation measures. China Sustainability Tribune, 2023, (Z1): 66-70. (in Chinese)

9. 周雪如, 李育. 千百年尺度祁连山地区干湿变化对暖期的响应. 地理学报, 2022, 77(5): 1138-1152. Zhou X R, Li Y. Response of dry-wet change to millennial and centennial warm periods in the Qilian Mountains. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(5): 1138-1152. (in Chinese)

10. Sun F, Li Y P, Chen Y N, et al. The dominant warming season shifted from winter to spring in the arid region of Northwest China. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2024, 7: 178.

11. Lian X, Piao S L, Li L Z X, et al. Summer soil drying exacerbated by earlier spring greening of northern vegetation. Science Advances, 2020, 6(1): eaax0255.

12. Li W T, Migliavacca M, Forkel M, et al. Widespread increasing vegetation sensitivity to soil moisture. Nature Communications, 2022, 13: 3959.

13. Benami E, Jin Z N, Carter M R, et al. Uniting remote sensing, crop modelling and economics for agricultural risk management. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2021, 2(2): 140-159.

14. Suo X H, Jiang Y Y, Chen G L, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation concentration and their associated risks. Scientific Reports, 2025, 15: 33152.

15. Chang P, Fu D, Liu X, et al. Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence. Nature Geoscience, 2026, 19: 33-41.

16. 陈发虎, 谢亭亭, 杨钰杰, 等. 我国西北干旱区“暖湿化”问题及其未来趋势讨论. 中国科学：地球科学, 2023, 53(6): 1246-1262. Chen F H, Xie T T, Yang Y J, et al. Discussion of the “warming and wetting” trend and its future variation in the drylands of Northwest China under global warming. Scientia Sinica (Terrae), 2023, 53(6): 1246-1262. (in Chinese)

17. 张书睿. 气象灾害对中国农业生产的影响. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2023. Zhang S R. The Impacts of Meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Production in China. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2023. (in Chinese)

18. Zantout K, Balkovic J, Billing M, et al. Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming. Nature Communications, 2025, 16: 9746.

19. Cheng F Y, Chang M Y, Zuo Z Y, et al. Profile of climate extremes vulnerability in China during 1991-2022. Science Bulletin, 2025, 70(16): 2547-2550.

20. Lamichhane J R. Rising risks of late-spring frosts in a changing climate. Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11(7): 554-555.

21. Hultgren A, Carleton T, Delgado M, et al. Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation. Nature, 2025, 642(8068): 644-652.

22. 宋艳玲, 周广胜, 郭建平, 等. 气候变暖对冬小麦徐麦33产量和品质影响. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(5): 552-561. Song Y L, Zhou G S, Guo J P, et al. Influences of global warming on yield structure and quality of winter wheat xumai 33. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2023, 34(5): 552-561. (in Chinese)

23. Proctor J, Zeppetello L V, Chan D, et al. Climate change increases the interannual variance of summer crop yields globally through changes in temperature and water supply. Science Advances, 2025, 11(36): eady3575.

24. Pardey P G, Chan-Kang C, Stads G J, et al. Food will be more affordable—if we double funds for agriculture research now. Nature, 2025, 648(8093): 271-274.

25. Bedasa Y, Gemechu A, Bedemo A. Impact of combined climate-smart agriculture practices on the technical efficiency and efficiency yield gap in ethiopia. Scientific Reports, 2026, 16: 1719.

Recommended Citation

CHEN, Yaning; SHEN, Yanjun; and JIANG, Ming (2026) "Impacts of climate change on China’s agricultural production and proposed countermeasures," Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version): Vol. 41 : Iss. 4 , Article 2.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3724/j.issn.1000-3045.20260109002
Available at: https://bulletinofcas.researchcommons.org/journal/vol41/iss4/2