•  
  •  
 

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

resource security, artificial intelligence, risk assessment, intelligent decision-making

Abstract

Resource security serves as a critical foundation for safeguarding national security and underpinning high-quality socioeconomic development. Major geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, have intensified turbulence across global resource supply chains, positioning resource security as a central arena of strategic competition among nations. As a major consumer and trading power in global resource markets, China faces persistently high import dependence for critical mineral resources, and the pressure to ensure resource security amid the pursuit of high-quality development continues to mount. Against this backdrop, resource security is evolving from a narrow focus on supply assurance toward a multidimensional, systemic conception of security, necessitating a departure from conventional research paradigms to better address complex systemic risks. Grounded in the holistic approach to national security, this study proposes a systematic solution centered on a large-model framework for resource security, underpinned by the 4A model (availability, accessibility, affordability, and applicability) as its technical architecture, and leveraging artificial intelligence, geographic information science, and resources science methodologies as key enabling technologies. Through the construction of a digital twin for resource security, the advancement of cutting-edge technologies, the establishment of resilient supply networks, and the promotion of sustainable transitions, this research aims to develop a forward-looking and strategically oriented resource security assurance system that reinforces the broader national security defense.

First page

2104

Last Page

2115

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

[1] Klare M T. The Race for What’s Left: The Global Scramble for the World’s Last Resources. New York: Metropolitan Books, 2012.

[2] 马天宇, 赵鹏军, 张梦竹. 地缘政治风险对中国战略性矿产资源供应安全影响的研究进展与展望. 资源科学, 2024, 46(11): 2108-2123. Ma T Y, Zhao P J, Zhang M Z. A review of research on the geopolitical risks and security of China’s critical mineral supply. Resources Science, 2024, 46(11): 2108-2123. (in Chinese)

[3] International Energy Agency. Global critical minerals outlook 2024. Paris: IEA, 2024.

[4] 王安建, 王春辉. 国际动荡局势对我国能源资源安全的挑战与应对策略. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(1): 72-80. Wang A J, Wang C H. Challenges of international turmoil situation to China’s energy resource security and coping strategies. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(1): 72-80. (in Chinese)

[5] 王安建, 袁小晶. 大国竞争背景下的中国战略性关键矿产资源安全思考. 中国科学院院刊, 2022, 37(11): 1550-1559. Wang A J, Yuan X J. Security of China’s strategic and critical minerals under background of great power competition. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2022, 37(11): 1550-1559. (in Chinese)

[6] 窦立荣, 刘化清, 常德宽, 等. 全球锂资源分布、产业现状和中国面临的挑战与对策. 中国科学院院刊, 2025, 40(3): 494-510. Dou L R, Liu H Q, Chang D K, et al. Challenges and countermeasures for lithium resources in China and analysis of global distribution and industry status. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2025, 40(3): 494-510. (in Chinese)

[7] 吴一丁, 彭子龙, 赖丹, 等. 稀土产业链全球格局现状、趋势预判及应对战略研究. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(2): 255-264. Wu Y D, Peng Z L, Lai D, et al. Exploring international rare earth industry landscape changes and China’s strategic responses. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(2): 255-264. (in Chinese)

[8] 张颖, 于皓丞, 颉梦秋, 等. AI for Science人工智能助力矿产资源研究的学术创新与合作. 中国矿业, 2025, 34(6): 97-105. Zhang Y, Yu H C, Jie M Q, et al. AI for Science: Academic innovation and collaboration of mineral resources researches motivated by artificial intelligence. China Mining Magazine, 2025, 34(6): 97-105. (in Chinese)

[9] 谷树忠, 姚予龙, 沈镭, 等. 资源安全及其基本属性与研究框架. 自然资源学报, 2002, (3): 280-285. Gu S Z, Yao Y L, Shen L, et al. Conceptual framework and research focus of resource security. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, (3): 280-285. (in Chinese)

[10] Cooper R N, Klare M T. Resource wars: The new landscape of global conflict. Foreign Affairs, 2001, 80(3): 134.

[11] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.

[12] U.S. Congress. Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act of 1939. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1939.

[13] 殷建平. 上世纪70年代两次中东石油危机给我们的警示. 石油大学学报（社会科学版）, 2005, (5): 9-12. Yin J P. Warnings from two Middle East oil crises in the 1970s. Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences), 2005, (5): 9-12. (in Chinese)

[14] Prusa T J. Economic sanctions reconsidered. Journal of International Economics, 2008, 76(1): 135-137.

[15] 李宝恒. 增长的极限——罗马俱乐部对人类困境的研究报告（摘要—续）. 未来与发展, 1983, (2): 49-51. Li B H. The limits to growth—A report for the Club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind (Abstract—Continued). Future and Development, 1983, (2): 49-51. (in Chinese)

[16] 《国家安全研究》编辑部. 总体国家安全观大事记. 国家安全研究, 2025, (5): 140-148. Editorial Department of National Security Studies. Chronicle of events on the holistic approach to national security. National Security Studies, 2025, (5): 140-148. (in Chinese)

[17] Sovacool B K, Ali S H, Bazilian M, et al. Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future. Science, 2020, 367: 30-33.

[18] Cheisson T, Schelter E J. Rare earth elements: Mendeleev’s bane, modern marvels. Science, 2019, 363: 489-493.

[19] Pavel C C, Lacal-Arántegui R, Marmier A, et al. Substitution strategies for reducing the use of rare earths in wind turbines. Resources Policy, 2017, 52: 349-357.

[20] Depraiter L, Goutte S, Porcher T. Geopolitical risk and the global supply of rare earth permanent magnets: Insights from China’s export trends. Energy Economics, 2025, 146: 108496.

[21] Luchtenbelt H, Doelman J, Bos A, et al. Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields. Environmental Research Letters, 2025, 20(1): 014001.

[22] Yoon J, Klassert C, Selby P, et al. A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change. PNAS, 2021, 118(14): e2020431118.

[23] Bleischwitz R, Spataru C, VanDeveer S D, et al. Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations sustainable development goals. Nature Sustainability, 2018, 1(12): 737-743.

[24] 马天宇, 赵鹏军. 海运地缘政治风险与中国资源安全：影响与应对. 地域研究与开发, 2024, 43(6): 16-23. Ma T Y, Zhao P J. Geopolitical risks in global shipping and China’s resource security: Influences and countermeasures. Areal Research and Development, 2024, 43(6): 16-23. (in Chinese)

[25] 哈·麦金德. 历史的地理枢纽. 林尔蔚，陈江，译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2010. Mackinder H J. The Geographical Pivot of History. Translated by Lin E W, Chen J. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2010. (in Chinese)

[26] 蒋含明, 胡灵芝, 陈洪章, 等. 突发扰动事件下原油供应链风险模拟与调控研究——基于系统动力学方法. 系统工程理论与实践, 2025, 45(1): 326-344. Jiang H M, Hu L Z, Chen H Z, et al. Simulation and regulation study on crude oil supply chain risk under disruptive events: Based on system dynamics approach. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2025, 45(1): 326-344. (in Chinese)

[27] 丁存振, 纪祥宇. 全球粮食供应链网络格局及韧性评估. 资源科学, 2025, 47(11): 2480-2492. Ding C Z, Ji X Y. Global food supply chain network pattern and resilience assessment. Resources Science, 2025, 47(11): 2480-2492. (in Chinese)

[28] Liu L J, Jiang H D, Liang Q M, et al. Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels. Nature Climate Change, 2023, 13(3): 290-296.

[29] Malik A, Lenzen M, Li M Y, et al. Polarizing and equalizing trends in international trade and Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 2024, 7: 1359-1370.

[30] Ouyang X, Liu L T, Chen W, et al. Systematic risks of the global lithium supply chain network: From static topological structures to cascading failure dynamics. Environmental Science & Technology, 2024, 58(50): 22135-22147.

[31] Sun X, Hao H, Geng Y, et al. Exploring the potential for improving material utilization efficiency to secure lithium supply for China’s battery supply chain. Fundamental Research, 2022, 4(1): 167-177.

[32] Shi H T, Heng J N, Duan H B, et al. Critical mineral constraints pressure energy transition and trade toward the Paris Agreement climate goals. Nature Communications, 2025, 16: 4496.

[33] Woodley L, See C Y, Cook P, et al. Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment. Nature Communications, 2024, 15: 6813.

[34] 李宇航, 徐志伟, 刘燕华, 等. 人工智能时代的地理科学前沿问题探析. 地理学报, 2024, 79: 2409-2424. Li Y H, Xu Z W, Liu Y H, et al. AI for geographical sciences: The frontiers. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2024, 79: 2409-2424. (in Chinese)

[35] Zhou W N, Zhang Y Q, Li X K. Artificial intelligence, green technological progress, energy conservation, and carbon emission reduction in China: An examination based on dynamic spatial Durbin modeling. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2024, 446: 141142.

[36] Cho H, Ackom E. Artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approach to climate action and sustainable development. Nature Communications, 2025, 16: 1228.

[37] Camps-Valls G, Fernández-Torres M Á, Cohrs K H, et al. Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events. Nature Communications, 2025, 16: 1919.

[38] Nepal R, Zhao X M, Dong K Y, et al. Can artificial intelligence technology innovation boost energy resilience? The role of green finance. Energy Economics, 2025, 142: 108159.

[39] Li Z Z, Xing Y Z, Shao X F, et al. Transitioning the energy landscape: AI’s role in shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Energy Economics, 2025, 149: 108729.

[40] 成秋明, 杨一琳, 周远志, 等. 基础模型时代的地球科学：AlphaEarth如何重塑定量地学. 地学前缘, 2025, 32(5): 1-11. Cheng Q M, Yang Y L, Zhou Y Z, et al. Earth science in the era of foundation models: How AlphaEarth is reshaping quantitative geoscience. Earth Science Frontiers, 2025, 32(5): 1-11. (in Chinese)

[41] 许磊, 陈能成, 邓敏. 数智耦合地学时空预测建模研究进展及展望. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）, 2026, 51(5): 869-887. Xu L, Chen N C, Deng M. Research progress and prospects of data-knowledge coupled spatiotemporal prediction modeling in geosciences. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2026, 51(5): 869-887. (in Chinese)

[42] Zhang Y J, Li Y S, Dang B, et al. Multi-modal remote sensing large foundation models: Current research status and future prospect. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2024, 53(10): 1942-1954.

[43] Stocker A N, Renner A H H, Knol-Kauffman M. Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012-2019. Scientific Reports, 2020, 10: 17043.

[44] Wang K C, Zhou J T, Yang R J, et al. Deploying photovoltaic systems in global open-pit mines for a clean energy transition. Nature Sustainability, 2025, 8(9): 1037-1047.

[45] 苏哲, 王晓玲, 余佳, 等. 数字孪生框架下土石坝地震动力响应时空分析系统研究. 水利学报, 2025, 56(11): 1454-1468. Su Z, Wang X L, Yu J, et al. Study on spatiotemporal analysis system of earth-rockfill dam seismic dynamic response under the digital twin framework. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2025, 56(11): 1454-1468. (in Chinese)

Download
Request a Copy

Share

COinS