•  
  •  
 

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Keywords

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), low-carbon transition pathways, climate change, climate cooperation

Document Type

Research on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation of Major Countries along the Belt and Road

Abstract

Climate cooperation among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries holds significant practical importance for achieving low-carbon transition and sustainable development within the BRI framework. To analyze the pathway towards low-carbon transition under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and emission quota allocation methods, the CGEM-BRI model was developed. The study also examined the potential requirements for climate finance, capacity building, and management system. Based on these findings, recommendations for climate cooperation between China and BRI countries were formulated. The study revealed that in order to limit global temperature rise for 1.5℃ in 2100, renewable energy sources should account for a minimum 65% of total primary energy consumption across all BRI countries by 2050. Achieving the low-carbon development goals outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of major BRI countries is estimated to require at least $19.2 trillion, with varying funding needs across different countries. To facilitate this transition, China must expedite the integration of its climate cooperation strategy with its economic transition and internationalization strategy, thereby assisting BRI countries in their own transitions. China also need to utilize China' s comparative advantages in the field of new energy to accelerate the process of low-carbon energy transition in BRI countries. Furthermore, it is crucial to accelerate the implementation of the China Climate Change South-South Cooperation Fund and promote green investment and financing cooperation among BRI countries. Lastly, it is needed to strengthen capacity building initiatives for climate cooperation and foster the establishment of a global climate governance system that encourages broad participation.

First page

1398

Last Page

1406

Language

Chinese

Publisher

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

References

1 Crippa M, Guizzardi D, Solazzo E, et al. GHG Emissions of All World Countries—2021 Report, EUR 30831 EN. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021.

2 Tan X C, Zhu K W, Sun Y L, et al. Bibliometric research on the development of climate change in the BRI regions. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2021, 12(2): 254-262. (in Chinese)

3 朱开伟. 基于CGEM模型的“一带一路”能源-经济-碳排放模型开发及其应用研究. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2021.

Zhu K W. Study on the Impacts of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the Economic Development, Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in the Major BRI Areas. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2021. (in Chinese)

4 世界银行. 2021年碳定价机制现状和趋势. 华盛顿特区: 世界银行, 2021. BankWorld. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021. Washington DC: World Bank, 2021. (in Chinese)

5 齐天宇. 全球多区域动态能源经济模型CGEM开发与应用. 北京: 清华大学, 2014. Qi T Y. Development of the Global Multiregional Dynamic Energy Economic Model (C-GEM) and Its Application. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2014. (in Chinese)

6 顾佰和, 王琛, 盛煜辉, 等. COP27：成果、挑战与展望. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 127-132. Gu B H, Wang C, Sheng Y H, et al. COP27: Progress, challenges, and outlook. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 127-132. (in Chinese)"

Download
Request a Copy

Share

COinS