Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)


disruptive technology; technology identification; methodological framework; on emerging stage; based on science

Document Type

World Science and Technology Power Construction - Last Ten Years Review and Future Trend of Science and Technology of China - Policy & Management Research


To realize sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels in China, it is imperative for disruptive technologies to embark on a new journey and open new horizons. The layout and development of disruptive technologies is a complicated and systematic project with strategic significance, in which the identification of disruptive technologies holds the key and serves as the premise. To this end, based on the underlying logic that disruptive technologies are destined to transit from marginalized forces to mainstream power in the future through the process of 10→3→1 constringency, on the understanding that the generation of disruptive technologies is driven by science and technology, the study puts forward the identifying approach of "identifying-selecting-evaluating", and develops a methodological framework for identifying disruptive technologies based on science with a view to providing reference for the early identification of disruptive technologies.

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Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences


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